The TricorBraun Pulse – September/October 2025

A Message from our President, North America and Chief Operations Officer

Welcome to the latest issue of the TricorBraun Pulse. From tariffs to transportation to the hurricane season, there are a range of consequential events that could impact the seamlessness of your supply chain continuity. We’ve weathered these supply challenges before and we’ll do it again, together.

In this issue of TricorBraun Pulse, we explore the trends shaping the current economic climate for CPG companies. Our entire TricorBraun team understands how demanding today’s economic uncertainty is for your business, and we are committed to keeping you informed and helping you navigate your way forward. Please contact us to see how we can further support you. We appreciate and value your business—and we’re here to help.

Sincerely,

economy

The CEO of DHL Express Europe said recently that “global trade is too big to fail.” Other business leaders are also growing more comfortable with the idea that tariffs are the “new normal” in supply chains. These viewpoints track with the thinking of many US investors and CEOs, who have backed away from tying tariffs to a recession. It’s a global market, and there will always be options for companies to manufacture, trade, and thrive.

While businesses largely adjust to tariffs (and the threat of more tariffs), uncertainty continues as a federal appeals court on August 29 ruled that the tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are illegal. The appeals court did, however, leave the current tariff schedules in place pending the administration’s anticipated appeal to the Supreme Court.

This means that, for now, new reciprocal tariffs on the EU and other nations that rolled out in early April (and were then modified August 7) are still in place along with the IEEPA tariffs imposed on Canada, China, and Mexico to address the Fentanyl crisis.  Bigger reciprocal tariffs on China are on pause until November 10.

In addition, there are concerns about sector-specific tariffs, which were not impacted by the court’s ruling as they were imposed under different provisions. These sector-specific tariffs include the recent implementation of new 50% steel and aluminum tariffs on 407 derivative products. And small-volume importers are scrambling to adjust to the elimination of the de minimis exemption, which had allowed for goods under $800 to enter the US duty-free. US manufacturers supported the decision, however, and hope that eliminating the exemption will boost domestic markets.

Consumer confidence, meanwhile, dropped in August on worries about higher prices. The US Federal Reserve meets next on September 16–17, and all eyes will be focused on whether they hold interest rates steady or lower them. 

Learn More:

Global De Minimis Exemption Ends Suddenly 

Investors and CEOs Have Ditched the Idea that Tariffs Will Cause a Recession

Trump’s Tariffs are the “New Normal” in Global Supply Chains

US Consumer Sentiment Weakens in August

transportation 

The impact of tariffs is being felt in the transportation sector in myriad ways. Ocean freight volume has stabilized and even declined in several major global lanes. The Port of Los Angeles handled a record one million containers in July as shippers continued to frontload cargo ahead of anticipated tariffs on imports from China—and this has created congestion. Amidst the broader uncertainty, however, spot rates to both US East and West Coast have dropped sharply. Major ocean carriers are also rerouting some container vessels to Europe and Latin America because of concerns about the long-term strength of the US market. Despite this, the Asia-Europe spot market also declined over the summer as new ocean capacity came online.

Market uncertainty has also hit the trucking industry.  US trucks are idling as costs rise, domestic manufacturing contracts, and more frontloaded inventory sits in warehouses. At the same time, the production and export to the US of Mexican-made trucks have decreased 50% over a year ago as trucking companies hold off investing in new inventory. This wait-and-see approach comes amidst a focus on immigration and worries about a possible shortage of skilled drivers. On the rail freight front, meanwhile, industry groups are warning that a proposed rail merger will raise costs. 

Learn More:

Asia, US Freight Rates Set to Extend Declines Amid Tariff Changes

Port of Los Angeles Sees Record 1 Million Containers in July

Rail Merger Will Bring “Dismal Service,” “High Rates,” Says Shippers Group

US Tariffs Impacting Mexican Trucking Industry

materials

The good news: resin prices overall are largely steady as we move into the fall months. The PP market is primarily domestic, and supplies are also expected to remain stable. In addition, Canadian-produced PP is exempt from tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The PE/HDPE market is also strong, with production in the US and Canada operating at 94% of capacity. Meanwhile, PET demand was flatter than expected over the peak summer season. While PTA (a feedstock of PET) from Canada and Mexico are currently protected from tariffs under the USMCA, tariffs are affecting the PX (feedstock of PET) market—and could have an impact on PET prices moving forward. On the PCR front, prices of PCR PP and PET remain largely flat; and recycled HDPE prices are down from their June highs. Regarding glass, supplies remain steady—and tariff concerns and rising energy costs could affect prices moving forward. 

Learn More:

Prices for Volume Resins Flat to Down Heading to Third Quarter

September 2025: Prices for the 5 Commodity Resins Relatively Stable

we-can-help

In today’s economy, it’s more important than ever to have supply chain options—from raw materials, to manufacturing, to transportation. At TricorBraun, we work with you to assure the continuity of your supply chain and mitigate the risk to your business, all with the intent of minimizing turbulence for your brand and your customers.

We are continuously monitoring the economy, capacity, freight options and pricing, the labor market, changing technology, and tariffs and trade—and we publish regular tariff updates for our customers. It’s part of how we add value, prevent disruptions, and efficiently manage every aspect of your supply chain. In addition, our global supply chain means we have the flexibility to offer reliability of supply, including domestic and nearshoring options, to give your business peace of mind. We are also leveraging our domestic and global scale and working directly with the largest providers to efficiently manage your local, long haul, and international transportation. Our in-house freight operations enable us to lock in favorable contract rates, using state-of-the-art technology, to provide our customers with price consistency and hedge against spot markets and surge pricing.

In addition, we can support your needs across all major substrates (glass, plastic, metal, paperboard, and flexibles). Our network of more than 1,200 suppliers across six continents—including North America—affords us the flexibility to source alternative packaging materials as well as the creativity to develop custom domestic packaging solutions to meet evolving customer needs. We also work with our customers to develop and monitor stocking programs to ensure steady supply and just-in-time deliveries.

For more, contact your TricorBraun packaging consultant or marketing@tricorbraun.com.

TricorBraun’s proven process will guide your packaging decisions from napkin sketch all the way to the retail shelf. Click below to get started.