The TricorBraun Pulse – April/May2025

A Message from our President, North America and Chief Operations Officer

Welcome to the latest issue of the TricorBraun Pulse. From tariffs to transportation to wildfires and floods, there are a range of consequential events that could impact the seamlessness of your supply chain continuity. We’ve weathered these supply challenges before—most recently during the global pandemic—and we’ll do it again, together.

In this issue of TricorBraun Pulse, we explore the trends shaping the current economic climate for CPG companies. Our entire TricorBraun team understands how demanding today’s economic uncertainty is for your business, and we are committed to helping you navigate your way forward. Please contact us to see how we can further support you. We appreciate and value your business—and we’re here to help.

Sincerely,

economy

The US administration’s announcement of 10% global tariffs has created uncertainty for both consumers and businesses. The good news is that a number of goods from Canada and Mexico continue to remain exempt under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Consumers are spending more cautiously (and deliberately) as they eye the market and brace for potentially higher prices on everything from household goods to appliances. Even before the tariffs were announced on April 2, consumer spending had slowed while personal savings rates rose. Meanwhile, although some US manufacturing activity has contracted—other manufacturers are rethinking domestic production to take advantage of their new competitive edge.

Learn More

Americans Are Spending Less as they Brace for New Tariffs

Consumers Are Saving More and Spending Less

Trump’s Tariffs Send Shockwaves Across the Global Economy 

transportation 

The impact of tariffs, along with Red Sea disruptions and shifting demand, is being felt in the transportation sector. While some importers are delaying contracts due to market instability, several major US retailers are locking in 2025–2026 ocean contracts at rates that are 15–20% higher than a year ago. At the same time, some major ocean carriers have new ships entering the market during 2025 and that will theoretically open capacity in several key lanes. It’s not clear, however, how the carriers will manage this extra capacity—though they are likely to slow stream and/or idle ships to protect rate margins.

Shippers, meanwhile, are rushing to secure air freight capacity to avoid disruptions as new tariffs take effect. Air cargo rates are climbing, with the Baltic Air Freight Index showing global rates up 5.1% year over year. The sharpest increases are from European hubs, with rates out of Frankfurt nearly 30% higher than a year ago. There has also been a surge in demand for charter flights, particularly from the automotive sector.

Rising economic uncertainty and the impact of tariffs are also hitting the North American trucking industry, and freight capacity may tighten and push rates higher if near-shoring and reshoring occur swiftly. While recession risks are increasing and freight demand still remains soft, ACT Research’s latest Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report points to signs that the long downturn in the for-hire freight market may be easing.

Learn More

Cross-border Freight Gets Reprieve from "Liberation Day" Tariffs

Freight Rates May Rise Despite Trade War, ACT Research Says

New US Tariffs Forcing Shippers to Recalculate Supply Chains on the Fly

Liberation Day, Unpacked: How New U.S. Tariffs Will Impact Your Imports?

materials

Even before the latest round of tariffs was announced, unease about what might happen was impacting US markets. Plastics Today reports that international buyers were already looking elsewhere for their resin supplies, notably to markets in the Middle East and Asia. 

The good news: the PP market is primarily domestic, so supplies are expected to remain stable. The outlook for both HDPE and PET, however, is less rosy. The US exported 46% of all the PE sold in 2024—notably to Canada, Mexico, and China—and potential retaliatory tariffs could impact the PE/HDPE market. Meanwhile, US PET producers, who import PTA (a feedstock of PET) from Canada and Mexico are currently protected from new tariffs under the USMCA—are also watching closely what comes next. The US also imports PTA and PET from Asia and the Middle East—and tariffs will impact these markets. On the PCR front, there’s a lot of speculation about the impact of tariffs on the market. Due to strong demand, however, prices for recycled HDPE were up to start the year. 

Glass supplies remain steady—but tariff concerns and rising energy costs could affect prices moving forward. While Chinese suppliers will likely suffer, glass suppliers in other market can fill demand. Meanwhile, although there is a 25% tariff on aluminum, ample supplies of domestic aluminum cans should mitigate the impact for most businesses. 

Learn More

Resin Price Report: Tariff Anxiety Trumps Attractive Discounts to Stall Sales in Resin Market

Uncertainty Hits Recycled Resin Market

we-can-help

In today’s economy, it’s more important than ever to have supply chain options—from raw materials to manufacturing, to transportation. At TricorBraun, we work with you to assure the continuity of your supply chain and mitigate the risk to your business, all with the intent of minimizing turbulence for your brand and your customers.

We are continuously monitoring the economy, capacity, freight options and pricing, the labor market, changing technology, and tariffs and trade, and we publish regular tariff updates for our customers. It’s part of how we add value, prevent disruptions, and efficiently manage every aspect of your supply chain. In addition, our global supply chain means we have the flexibility to offer reliability of supply, including domestic and nearshoring options, to give your business peace of mind. We are also leveraging our domestic and global scale and working directly with the largest providers to efficiently manage your local, long haul, and international transportation. Our in-house freight operations enable us to lock in favorable contract rates, using state-of-the-art technology, to provide our customers with price consistency and protect you from spot markets and surge pricing.

In addition, we are vendor agnostic, which means that we can support your needs across all major substrates (glass, plastic, metal, paperboard, and flexibles). Our network of more than 1,000 suppliers across six continents—including North America—affords us the flexibility to source alternative packaging materials as well as the creativity to develop custom domestic packaging solutions to meet evolving customer needs. We also work with our customers to develop and monitor stocking programs to ensure steady supply and just-in-time deliveries.  If you are interested in learning more about our design and engineering capabilities and/or our warehousing footprint and how a warehouse agreement can hedge against supply disruptions, please reach out to your TricorBraun Packaging Consultant. 

For more, contact your TricorBraun packaging consultant or marketing@tricorbraun.com.

TricorBraun’s proven process will guide your packaging decisions from napkin sketch all the way to the retail shelf. Click below to get started.