The TricorBraun Pulse – January/February 2025


A Message from our President, North America and Chief Operations Officer


Happy New Year! As we move into 2025, we have a new US administration along with inflationary pressure and some signs of uncertainty as to what comes next. From potential tariffs to transportation challenges to wildfires and other extreme weather, there are a range of consequential events that could impact your business and the global economy. We’ve weathered these supply challenges before—and we’ll do it again, together, in 2025.
In this issue of TricorBraun Pulse, we explore the trends shaping the current economic climate for CPG companies. Our entire TricorBraun team understands how demanding this new normal is for your business, and we are committed to helping you navigate your way forward. Please contact us to see how we can further support you. We appreciate and value your business—and we’re here to help.
Sincerely,


economy


Economic statecraft just might be the watchword for 2025. The Boston Consulting Group defines the term as “the notion that policies traditionally aimed at promoting economic and industrial development or punishing perceived trade abuses should also reflect foreign policy agendas.” The result: a complex set of national policy calculations that will make this year challenging for businesses across the globe. We’re already seeing a microcosm of this play out in the parrying between the incoming US administration and the governments of Canada and Mexico.
As we brace for what happens next, it’s clear that concerns about tariffs and inflation—and their potential consequences—could have a cascading impact on the global economy. In the European Union, for example, there are already worries about a flood of cheap goods as China looks to find new (non-US) destinations for its exports. This comes as Germany, France, and Italy are already in a recession, with manufacturing in these EU nations ending the year on a sour note.
At the same time, there is speculation about whether a potential new round of high tariffs on goods into the US will propel the United Kingdom to strengthen economic ties with the EU—or go it alone and negotiate instead with the United States. Meanwhile, everyone from automakers to restauranteurs is bracing for impact in the US. Quartz reported recently on the impact of new tariffs on wine, saying they would “likely devastate the middle- and upper-ends of the restaurant business, while doing nothing to help U.S. producers.”
Learn More
Europe in the Line of Fire as Trump Threatens Trade War with China
Euro Zone Factories Saw Little Festive Cheer in December, PMI Shows
How “Economic Statecraft” Evolved into a Tool of US Foreign Policy
The Trump Tariffs are Coming For Wine. American Restaurants Could Die.
Trump is Threatening New Tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. Here's What Products They Would Hit
Will “Full-Blown Trump” Tariffs Drive Britain Back into the Arms of Europe?
transportation


There are long lead times on goods from Asia as container companies take the long way around to avoid the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the volume of freight into the US market surged to end the year as importers looked to frontload shipments before any proposed tariffs take effect. This has also led to container shortages. As of mid-December, for example, a surge of seafood imports from Asia coupled with crops from South America created a crunch in both refrigerated containers and refrigerated trucks. Another area to watch: the impact of tariffs on rail traffic (and rail revenue) between the US and Canada and Mexico.
While tariffs dominate the news, fears of fresh labor unrest at US ports have also contributed to the recent surge in imports. The good news: the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Alliance on January 8 reached a tentative agreement on a new contract; while it still needs to be ratified, the deal appears to avert a costly strike at East and Gulf Coast ports. The major issue has been the use of automation—and the impact on dock workers’ jobs. The union appeared to get a boost in mid-December when the incoming president expressed his support for hiring more dock workers.
Learn More
Shippers Struggle to Find Capacity as Shortage of Reefer Boxes and Trucks Grows
Trump Backs ILA in Port Labor Standoff
Trump Tariffs Would Put Cross-border Rail Traffic in the Crosshairs
Trump Tariff Threats are Setting Off a Global Supply Chain Freakout
US Dockworkers and Port Employers Reach Labor Deal
materials


While supplies of PE and PP are forecast to remain stable to start the year, price volatility could be on the horizon. The incoming US administration has threatened to target China, Mexico, and Canada—all significant importers of US resins—with new tariffs. Any new US-imposed tariffs would likely result in retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which could hit US resin producers hard. Meanwhile, US PET producers, who import PTA (a feedstock of PET) from Canada and Mexico, are also watching closely what comes next. On the PCR front, prices for HDPE are likely to continue to rise in early 2025.
Learn More
Resin Prices May Be Volatile in 2025
we-can-help


- We are monitoring the economy, capacity, freight options and pricing, tariffs and trade, the labor market, and changing technology, so you don’t have to. It’s part of how we prevent disruptions and efficiently manage every aspect of your supply chain.
- We are continually combing through our expansive supply chain network of more than 1,000 suppliers across six continents to find packaging options for customers as needed to respond to changing market conditions. Our global supply chain means we have the flexibility to offer reliability of supply, including domestic and nearshoring options, to give your business peace of mind.
- We are leveraging our domestic and global scale and working directly with the largest providers to efficiently manage your local, long haul, and international transportation, using state-of-the-art technology, to deliver what you need, when you need it.
- We are continuing to develop our organized planning and execution technology platform to manage ocean and air imports. The new platform provides visibility from Purchase Order release through final mile delivery. It also offers comprehensive data collection to drive service metrics for improved performance management.
- We are continuously managing shipping lanes to ensure products are flowing seamlessly across the globe. This includes identifying alternative options to mitigate the impact of possible work stoppages in 2025.
- We are working with our customers to develop and monitor stocking programs to ensure steady supply and just-in-time deliveries while leveraging our suppliers’ improved lead times. Ask about a warehousing agreement and how it could help you manage your inventory and hedge against supply disruptions.
- We are customizing or redesigning packaging for our customers to not only appeal to what consumers want now but also to achieve your brand sustainability goals. Plus ask how our design and decorating capabilities could elevate your packaging.
For more, contact your TricorBraun packaging consultant or marketing@tricorbraun.com.
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